Okay, trade war economy is legitimately keeping me up at 2 a.m. scrolling X again like some kind of economic masochist. I’m sitting here in my kitchen in [redacted mid-size Ohio city], the fridge humming way too loud, leftover Chipotle bag leaking sauce on the counter, and I’m wondering if we’re actually headed for recession or if this is just another cycle of panic I’m too broke to ignore.
Seriously, the tariffs keep piling on—first it was steel and aluminum back in the day, now it’s everything from semiconductors to Canadian lumber—and prices at Kroger are making me do math I haven’t done since high school. Last Tuesday I stood in the dairy aisle staring at a gallon of 2% like it personally insulted my mom. $7.89. I put it back and grabbed the store brand. Felt like a small defeat but also like maybe I’m finally adulting? Nah, mostly defeat.
How This Trade War Economy Hits My Wallet Right Now
I’m not an economist. I’m a guy who fixes HVAC systems for a living, so when people start yapping about GDP contraction I just nod and think about whether my overtime will dry up. But here’s what I’m seeing every damn day:
- Gas is creeping back toward $4.20/gallon even though crude supposedly dipped—thanks, supply chain BS from the latest round of trade spats.
- My buddies at the shop are talking about customers delaying furnace replacements because “money’s tight.” Translation: they’re scared of a recession too.
- My own 401(k) statement came in the mail (yeah I still get paper ones, judge me) and it’s down 11% since October. I almost cried in the driveway reading it.
I keep telling myself it’s temporary, but then I remember 2018–2019 when the first big trade war waves hit and my hours got cut for like four months. I ate so much ramen my roommate started calling me “Noodle Neck.” Not proud.
Are We Actually Headed for Recession Because of This Trade War Stuff?
Here’s where I get messy and contradict myself in real time. Part of me thinks yeah, we’re barreling toward a recession. The yield curve inverted again last month (I had to Google what that even means—don’t @ me), consumer confidence numbers are trash, and manufacturing PMI keeps flirting with contraction. Check out what the Fed’s been saying lately: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm — they’re not exactly popping champagne.
But then the optimistic side (small, but loud) goes: unemployment’s still pretty low, AI and tech spending are bonkers, maybe we dodge the bullet again like we did in 2022–2023. I want to believe that because I just put new tires on the car and can’t afford a full-blown downturn right now.
For a deeper dive on how tariffs are rippling through, this piece from Brookings lays it out without too much jargon: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-tariffs-are-affecting-the-us-economy/.
What I’m Actually Doing About It (Mostly Panicking, But With Steps)
Look, I’m not gonna pretend I have a master plan. But here’s the chaotic list of things I’ve tried so far:
- Cut back on DoorDash—down to once a week instead of four times. My bank account thanked me with a sad little +$87.
- Started side-hustling weekend handyman gigs on Nextdoor. Made $320 last month fixing a leaky faucet and hanging drywall. Felt like a boss until I tweaked my back.
- Opened a high-yield savings account (finally) at like 4.5% APY. It’s not much, but it’s something while everything else bleeds red.
- Stopped checking my portfolio every morning. That habit was killing me.
If you’re in the same boat, maybe try one of those. Or don’t. I’m not your financial advisor—I can barely advise myself.
Anyway, the point is this trade war economy has me feeling like I’m walking on a tightrope made of expired coupons. Are we headed for recession? Probably leaning yes, but I’ve been wrong before (ask me about my 2020 crypto bets). All I know is grocery receipts don’t lie, and mine are screaming.